It's that time again! No, it's not time for Stemkovsky's wheat germ and soy milk bath. It's time for the NFL PICKS - Week 6 style!
As you know, I'm coming to you from my leaking gambling raft as I type by candlelight while a typhoon batters my floatilla all over the south pacific. And while I make picks...the sharks loom. But i digress...
Now, really, this is all a big social experiment, designed to show you all that gambling on the NFL is a very fool hardy endeavor - to say the least. I make my very well researched and thought out analysis and my radical, right-wing Raskolnikov brother, Big Dan, throws cheese rings at a dart board to decide his picks. Big Dan, as you recall, knows almost nothing about football or pro sports in general. In fact, he still believes that William "The Refridgerator" Perry was nothing more than an ill conceived GI Joe action figure.
The Fridge. Not one of Big Dan's favorites.
Last week, I bounced by slightly to go 7-7, but Big Dan won the day, trouncing me in the Monday Night game with his Dexter-Dolphin pick, to go 8-6. Thanks Jets. Thanks. Anyway, after 5 week, I hold the slimmest of 1 game leads.
W L GB
Me 43 33 -
Big Dan 42 34 1
Can I hold off that inevitable force of neo-conservative jibber-jabble? Or will Big Dan rise to the top? Let's find out...onto the Week 6 Picks:
Washington (-6.5) over Kansas City
Welcome to the "Battle for Jim Zorn's Job - Part 1!" Now, Washington doesn't blow my skirt up. Not at all. But Kansas City is absolutely awful. I know the Chefs took my Cowboys to OT last week, but, you know what? I'm not so sure Dallas is better than Washington. And Zorn has to win this game. Has to. Now, winning doesn't mean covering. And 6 1/2 is a lot to give...but there's some things I like about the Skins in this game. I like Campbell to Moss. I like Portis. I like the Skins front four to harass Cassell all day. And there's things about the Chiefs I hate. Like Larry Johnson. And Larry Johnson. And then there's Larry Johnson. (although I hear that Jamal Charles might get a lot more looks this week.) Anyway, the game's in Washington, and if Zorn can't get them fired up for this, he deserves to be fired. Redskins 27 Chiefs 17. Big Dan?
Big Dan: Tribe versus tribe, I like it. Chiefs. Redskins are just lowly grubs in comparison.
Tribe v. Tribe. Epic.
Cincinnati (-5.5) over Houston
This is a tough call. Somewhat of a big spread. But Cincy is looking good. After a big win over the Ravens last week, I'm certainly not picking against them. And welcome back Cedric Benson! The boy has become not a man, but a beast. And Carson Palmer has got to be licking his chops against a porous Houston secondary. Having said that, the Texans have a fairly stout offense themselves, with Matt Schaub hurling bullets all over the field to Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. However, the Bengals have made it their specialty to shut down the #1 WR on each team they've played, so Andre Johnson could be in for a tough day. I think Houston keeps it close, but ultimately the surprising Bengals prevail, 23-17. Dan-O?
Big Dan: Houston. I have a vision of a Texas Ranger riding a saddled up Bengal tiger, just chomping and shooting at whatever moves.
Let's give a big hand to Cowboy Sahib! Fun at parties.
Pittsburgh (-14) over Cleveland
This game personally offends me. Cleveland is coming off a robust 6-3 win over the equally hapless Bills. In that game, Brown QB Derek Anderson completed 2 passes. Yes. 2 passes. And he won. So, how many will he complete against the Steelers, who happen to be a shade better than the Bills? Let's say six. I don't think six completions will carry the day...or the cover. The Steelers looked pathetic last week in beating the Lions 28-21 and failed to cover a double-digit spread. I think they cover this time around. Steelers 20 Browns 3. Big Dan?
Big Dan: Steelers ... Browns is something you do in your underwear. Buy Chipotlaway!
Billy Mays likes this! Chipotlaway!
Minnesota (-3) over Baltimore
Minnesota is juts good. Father time hasn't quite caught old man Favre just yet - although I have a hunch he will by Thanksgiving. But for now, Favre is slingin' the ball all over the place - to Percy Harvin, Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian. Plus, let's not forget a lil' ol' running back by the name of Adrian Peterson. The Ravens, by the way, are a very good team. And they're coming off a rough loss to the Bengals, so I hesitate to pick them to lose two in a row...but I can't see them going into the Metrodome and winning against this tough Viking team. I'm going with the Vikes and I'll give the field goal. Vikings 26 Ravens 21.
Big Dan: See, I can't say "Great Odin's Ravens!" without becoming confused as to which team that favors. Uh, Vikings.
You stay classy, Minnesota.
St. Louis (+9.5) over Jacksonville
I think I just threw up in my mouth. I can't be serious can I? Picking St. Louis? And I suppose I think the Warriors actually did kill Cyrus. Ugh. But what can I do? The Jags looked terrible in getting obliterated by the Seahawks last week. They looked like a team in disarray. And while I don't think the Jags will lose this game out right, it's tough to take them and lay 9 1/2 points. I'm hard pressed to tell you how I think the Rams are going to score in order to keep this game close...but I suppose Bulger could hit Avery and Steven Jax could run for a couple. I also think Torry Holt will return to St. Louis and light up the Rams secondary for his first 100 yard game and 1st TD for the 2009 season. Ultimately, the Jags will win 30-21. Dan the man?
Big Dan: I forget, what's St. Louis's team name?
Me: uh, the Rams.
Big Dan: Oh, right, the Rams. What they did to Rush Limbaugh was inexcusable! Jacksonville.
Me: You think Rush should have been allowed to buy the Rams?
Big Dan: I'm already checking into possible antitrust violations -- it's a classic refusal to deal! Also, if you can take Michael Vick, I think you should be able to deal with Rush.
Can anyone handle Rush?
Giants (+3) over New Orleans
The game of the week. Eli's homecoming. Drew Brees vs. the Giant D. Manningham and Smith vs. the Saints secondary. Shockey vs. everyone in NY. There's a lot of storylines and angles here, but basically it's been billed as the best offense (Saints) vs the best defense (Giants). However, the Giants offense is pretty damned good and so is the Saint defense. It's going to come down to whether the Saints can get to Eli early and often and make that foot of his start throbbing. If Eli gets hobbled and has to come out, the Saints are going to thrash the Giants. However, I think the Giant O-line holds, and the Giants pull out a tough win in the Big Easy, 33-31. Dan?
Big Dan: This is supposed to be a big game, right?
Me: huge.
Big Dan: I guess I'll go with the Saints. That fleur-de-lis inspires terror.
The only person on the planet the fleur-de-lis sorta scares.
Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay
I hate mayonaise. Detest it. Makes me sick. So, when someone asks me which mayo I prefer, Kraft or Hellman's, I honestly have no idea how to respond. So now you know how I feel about this game. Both teams are horrendous. But I did feel that Josh Johnson gave the Bucs a bit of a spark last week. Even though they lost, they looked feisty and Johnson really moved the ball well. So, I was leaning towards picking Tampa, when I realized Johnson also threw 3 picks. And then I remember the Tampa defense couldn't stop a team from scoring if you gave them a gun. So, while I think Johnson will move the Buc offense, I think the Panther offense will do just fine as well and the Carolina D will force a few turnovers which will ultimately prove the difference. Panthers 27 Bucs 21.
Big Dan: Panthers? Yeah, Panthers. That Buccaneer mustache is goofy.
Me: They haven't used Bucco Bruce since 1996. Now they use a skull and crossbones on a flag.
Big Dan: His name was Bucco Bruce?!?! Aw, man, that rocks. Panthers anyway. You should own a logo that goofy, not reject it.
Bring back Bucco Bruce!
Green Bay (-13.5) over Detroit
Detroit showed signs of life last week, throwing a scare into the Steelers with a comeback attempt that ultimately, inevitably fell short. So this week, they head into Green Bay for a showdown with division rival, the Packers, but they'll most likely have to do it with out both QB Matt Stafford and all-world WR Calvin Johnson. Johnson is likely out with a "not significant" knee injury. Huh. What has to happen for an injury to be significant? Death? Anyway, none of this bodes well for a Lion team that would have been considered absurdly overmatched even if they were both playing. Expect Aaron Rodgers to light up the oxymoronic Lion defense, and watch Ryan Grant rumble all day. It won't be pretty or close. Packers 44 Lions 13. D-man?
Big Dan: What's the Lions' streak right now.
Me: uh...one.
Big Dan: Huh?
Me: They won 2 weeks ago, then lost last week.
Big Dan: Ooh, ouch. I guess Green Bay then. I like plucky underdogs, but these guys sound more like laughable idiots.
Laughable idiots.
Philadelphia (-14) over Oakland
Jamarcus Russell went 8-13 for 100 yards, no TDs and no INTs in last weeks 44-7 loss to the Giants. And this caused his QB rating to SKYROCKET to 47.1. Whoa, watch out! The kid is on a roll! Anyway, a two-touchdown spread in an NFL game is beyond absurd...but then again, so are the Raiders. I see no reason why Philly, behind healthy vets Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook, along with up and coming young studs, Brent Celek, DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin, won't waltz into the Bay and pummel the Raiders repeatedly about the head and body. I think I'd honestly take the Eagles -28 in this game. Anyway, Raider defensive end Greg Ellis said it best yesterday:
"The mood we're going to be in or should be in, right now we're kind of the laughingstock of the NFL..."
Right. And I'm supposed to pick the Raiders in this game? Ridiculous. Eagles roll and roll and roll....42-17. Dan-O?
Big Dan: Oakland. The Vick hypocrisy continues to rankle.
Me: You know, most NFL fans consider Oakland a league-wide laughingstock.
Big Dan: Plucky underdogs!
Plucky Underdogs?
Arizona (+3) over Seattle
I'm really not sure I understand the thinking of these NFL-linesmakers. Seattle is coming off a monster win over hapless Jacksonville, 41-0. Ok, I get that. Great. But why are they suddenly better than Arizona? Arizona played a tight game v. Houston, but they still won the game. Look, Seattle has two impressive wins. Both shutouts. But over St. Louis and Jacksonville. Their other three games? All losses and none of them really close. I think it'll be a good game and I think Matt Hasselbeck will really be able to move the ball down the field on the Cards, throwing strikes to his WR Nate Burleson and TJ Houshmandzdeh and TE John Carleson. But let's not forget Arizona has a few decent WRs too - Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. Seattle's secondary looks like Camp Crystal Lake on the Saturday after. I smell a shootout. And Arizona with gunslinging Kurt Warner, knows how to win shootouts. Arizona 37 Seattle 33. Dano-chevitz?
Big Dan: I can't think of anything to say about either of these teams. Time for the British pound!
(flips coin)
Err...Seattle.
Once more, with feeling: God Save the Queen!
Buffalo (+9.5) over the Jets
I'm not hatin' on the Jets. Really I'm not. Ok, I'm still a little steamed they burned me on Monday night. I pick them to dismantle the Dolphins and they get "wildcatted" right out of south Florida. It was ridiculous. Rex Ryan knew - KNEW - what was coming on nearly every single play, and still, he couldn't stop it. Very frustrating. On the flip side, Buffalo lost 6-3 to the Browns. So, uh, there's not much to get excited about on that side of the ball either. I think this will be a defensive, ball control battle. Look for Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson to get a ton of touches, look for TO to cry on the sidelines as he once again does nothing. And look for the Jets to try to ignite a slumbering running game by giving Shone Greene more looks this week instead of old man Thomas Jones. I think the Jets win this game, but I think it's a close, field goal battle. Jets win, but fail to cover, 13-9. Dan?
Big Dan: Buffalo. You know why. Also, career-ending injuries. I pray for 'em.
Me: uh...why?
Big Dan: Because they hate cripples, and I like irony.
Irony.
New England (-9) over Tennessee
Eventually, the Titans will win a game. They're not as bad as their 0-5 record would indicate. However, neither are they anywhere close to as good as they were in going 13-3 last year. New England, on the other hand, is still pretty damned good, despite discouraging losses to the Jets and Broncos. The Pats aren't the Juggernaut they've been in recent years, but they're still pretty solid and they have those two guys named Brady and Moss, which gives them a better than average shot at winning and covering a big spread vs. the sad sad Titans. I think the Titans make some noise, but New England pulls away big time in the second half. Patriots 34 Titans 19. D-Man?
Big Dan: Titans ... like Cronus devouring his children. See? Titans? Or like Teddy Kennedy going down on a bucket of hooch.
Admit it. You thought I was going with a Teddy Kennedy gag here, didn't you?
Atlanta (-3) over Chicago
I've just got a feeling. This is a tough game. And it should be a good game. And the Bears are coming off a bye, so they should be well rested and well prepped for this showdown with the Falcons. The Falcons are coming off a dismantling of the 49ers, so they too should come in feeling pretty good about themselves. Jay Cutler is making people forget the names of...uh...Rex Grossman and Kyle Orton I guess? Well, anyway, Cutler is playing well. And he seems to have found himself some WRs in Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett and Devin Hester. Add Matt Forte to the mix and the Bears are fairly solid. But...ah, but, the game is in Atlanta and the Falcons are rolling. Tony Gonzalez has been a welcomed addition to the Atlanta aerial attack. Roddy White has been a beast. Matt Ryan gets better every single week, and it looks like Michael "3-TD" Turner finally woke up last week. All this points to a pretty fun Sunday night game...and i think it will deliver. But I'm taking the home favorite and giving the 3 points. Falcons find a way to win, 28-24. Big Dan?
Big Dan: I have no idea. Um, Bears? They have more SNL sketches that involve them.
Da Bears.
Monday Night
Denver (+3.5) over San Diego
Denver is 5-0. They've beaten New England and Dallas on consecutive weeks and they've also beaten a pretty decent Bengal squad. Now, they go into San Diego and face the 2-2 Chargers who are coming off a bye. If the Broncos win this game, they can run away and hide, as the AFC West will be essentially theirs. If they lose...well, San Diego is right back in the middle of things. But I gotta tell ya...Denver looks good. Josh McDaniels has a team of good, young over-achievers playing hard and with a chip on their shoulder every week. Kyle Orton looks like a very solid starting QB, Brandon Marshall seems to have found his way back in the fold and Knowshon Moreno is starting to build steam. Not to mention the Bronco defense has been looking like the Orange Crush of old. While San Diego...welll...the Bolts look old. Slow. Poorly conditioned and poorly coached. LT seems to be finished, while the Chargers seem to focus more on their passing game now, with Philip Rivers targeting Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. But the presence of Champ Bailey should neutralize Gates and that makes for a long day for the Bolts, unless LT regains some measure of his former glory. He won't. Broncos roll, 27-14. Dan?
Big Dan: Broncos! I just like saying the word. BRON-COS. See? Rolls off the tongue.
Speakin' of rolling...Bronco fans are rolling...
And there you have it, folks! The picks are in and the battle lines are drawn. Let's hope I can hold off the furious onslaught of Dan Limbaugh! (I have no chance.) And before we go, before I lose power out here in the open sea, let's end on our favorite note: Cheerleaders!
