Are you ready for some football? More importantly, are you ready for some gambling on football?!? Hah. I kid. As we all know, gambling on sports is illegal unless you're in the Las Vegas city limits or floating on a pontoon 5 miles off the US coast. Which is where I am. Thanks to my editor. He spares no expense to get me where I need to be. Floating on a dingy in the midst of shark infested waters just so I can talk to you about the betting lines for week 1 in the NFL.
Stemkovsky's gambling floatilla. You can't see me because I'm below deck crying.
But i thought we'd do things a little differently. I'm going to run down my picks, give you my thoughts, who I think will win and why. But I am going to do something else. Two things actually. First, I'm going to tell you that it is completely impossible to bet on football and succeed with any degree of regularity. It's a total crap shoot. Second, I'm going to prove it.
I'd like you to meet my brother, Dan. Dan is one of the smartest guys I know. He's in law school right now, because really, if there's one thing we need, it's more lawyers. He's well versed in law, literature, pop culture and politics. He's fairly knowledgeable about world history and our place in it. And he can recite Pi to 167 places. What he cannot do, however, is talk sports. The sum total of everything he's ever known and will ever know about sports is that Gary Cooper was filmed backwards when playing Lou Gehrig in "Pride of the Yankees" because he couldn't bat left-handed. That's it. Anything else is merely pop culture references masquerading as sports knowledge. So, Big Dan is going to make his picks as well. And we're going to give you his reasons for each pick, so, y'know, you know where he's coming from. Then, throughout the year, we'll match his picks with mine and see who does better.
Big Dan. He's a merry lad.
I have no chance.
Without further ado, Week 1's picks:
THURSDAY NIGHT:
Tennesse (+6) over Pittsburgh
Tough call. But it seems like every year the defending champion opens with a loss. This SHOULD be a win for the Steel City. Home opener, raising the Superbowl banner, Kerry Collins is the Titans QB. But the Titans have a solid defense and I'm just not sure Big Ben's head is in the game. Make no mistake, the Steelers are a playoff team, and they might even win this game. But I think it will be close and low scoring. Something like 17-16 Steelers. So I'm taking Tennesse and the points.
Big Dan: I know absolutely nothing. Steelers have awfully cool uniforms and the sparking thing on their helmets, but the Titans are, you know, TITANS. I say Titans.
Titans!
SUNDAY:
Atlanta (-4) over Miami
I'm a big Falcon fan this year. I think Matt Ryan takes the next step. I love their running game with Turner and their receiving corps have been boosted by Tony Gonzalez joining Roddy White. Miami isn't going to fool anyone with the wildcat this year. It's Atlanta's home opener and I say the Falcons roll 24-13. Take the Falcons and give the points.
Big Dan:Miami, because I'm looking forward to Dexter.
Makes sense.
Kansas City (+13) over Baltimore
Joe Flacco had a miserable preseason. So did the entire Kansas City team for that matter. I'm not a huge fan of either one of these teams, but thirteen points is an awful lot of points. I don't think the Ravens will blow anyone out this year. And I think the Chiefs and Matt Cassel will play a fairly smart albeit conservative game and that will keep the score down. In fact, I think the Ravens will probably win this game 13-7. So take the Chiefs and all those points.
Big Dan: I have to go with Baltimore because I love Poe.
Quoth the Raven, you have no chance.
Philadelphia (-2) over Carolina
This game is nearly impossible to predict. It's at home for the Panthers, and I love a home dawg gettin' points. But I also hate picking against the NFC East. The Panthers will rely heavily on D'Angelo Williams to control the clock and keep the ball out of McNabb's hands. But, at the end of the day, in a pick'em game, I'm going with the NFC Beast. Look for the Eagles to pull this one out on the road 24-21.
Big Dan: Is Vick playing for Philly?
ME: Not yet...
Big Dan: Panthers. Just on principle.
Principles.
Cincinnati (-4 1/2) over Denver
Ugh. This game stinks like 4 day old fish. Cincinnati is terrible. I hate picking them in any situation, much less when they're actually giving away points. On the other hand, Denver has an entirely new coaching staff. Jay Cutler is in Chicago. Brandon Marshall is a mess. And no one knows who their running back is. And their offense is the strong part of their team. Yeesh. I guess go with the Bengals at home giving 4 1/2. But I don't feel good about it. Let's say Bengals 27-17 over Denver.
Big Dan: Doesn't Homer Simpson own Denver? Denver.
Doh.
Minnesota (-4) over Cleveland
Cleveland opens at home with a tough match-up versus a stout Viking squad, who sport a solid defense and an offense led by Adrian "All Day" Peterson and uh...Brett Favre. This isn't much of a challenge for the Vikes, as Cleveland still doesn't know who their QB will be. And regardless, I don't think Cleveland could stop Adrian Peterson even if they were allowed 35 guys on the field. The fact that they can only have 11 makes it that much worse. Take the Vikings and expect a crisp 34-13 win.
Big Dan: I gotta go with the Vikings. I have a Viking hat in my car.
Free hat.
Houston (-5 1/2) over New York (Jets)
I am a big believer in the Texans this year. I think that they have a great core offense with Schaub, Slaton, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels. Their defense is very under-rated, led by Mario Williams. And this game is in Houston. The Jets get a lot of hype playing in New York, but the fact is, they're starting a rookie QB, their starting RB is over 30 and they have absolutely no threat at WR. I don't think this game will be even remotely close. Take the Texans, give the points and expect a nifty 32-14 win.
Big Dan: I'll go with the Jets just for being from NY.
Except...they play in New Jersey.
Indianapolis (-7 1/2) over Jacksonville
This is opening day in Indy for Peyton Manning and company. This one's not gonna be close. The Jags defense is not what it once was. They have Maurice Jones-Drew who usually gives the Colts fits, but even his presence won't save the day for the Jags. Expect Manning to go to Clark and Wayne early and often as the Colts blow out the Jags 38-21.
Big Dan: Hmmm...Indianapolis. I already picked a Florida team. They're not football people down there.
Me: What are you basing that on?
Big Dan: Because it's hot and humid and those uniforms are heavy.
Me: The game's being played in Indianapolis.
Big Dan: Yes, but don't they practice in Florida?
It gets hot down in Florida.
New Orleans (-13) over Detroit
There's not much I can really say about this game. Detroit is terrible. 13 points or no, the Lions have no shot at stopping the Saints or Drew Brees, who could throw for 5000 yards in this game alone. I'm predicting a huge blowout as the Saints roll, 56-24.
Big Dan: Wow, the two most ruined cities in America. I'll say the Saints because even I know the Lions are horrible.
Their exploits are already legendary.
Dallas (-6) over Tampa Bay
I'm biased since I'm a die-hard Cowboys fan, but I really don't see how the Cowboys lose this game. Romo is fired up to make a statement that he can win without TO. He's got Witten, Crayton and Roy Williams as targets. Plus, the 'Boys have a healthy Marion Barber and Felix Jones, and last year, when Jones and Barber were both healthy, Dallas was damn near unbeatable. The Bucs are just plain awful, having almost no running game and an even worse passing game. Byron Leftwich, Antonio Bryant and Derrick Ward are not beating this Cowboy defense. Take Dallas, give 6 and expect a 34-7 victory.
Big Dan: Isn't that like Dallas vs. the Pee-Wee League? I'll guess Dallas.
Hard to see Dallas losing to these guys
Arizona (-6 1/2) over San Francisco
The NFC rep from the Superbowl, I expect the Cardinals to come out and make a statement in this opening day divisional game. There's no way the Niners can stop the Cardinal aerial assault and while I think the Niners might keep it close early, the Cards should ultimately pull away and cover as well. Expect a big Cardinal win, 38-27.
Big Dan: SF because they're faaaaaabulous.
Washington (+6 1/2) over New York (Giants)
I'm just not sure the Giants are ready for opening day. Their WR situation is still a mess and while I think they'll win this game, I don't think they'll cover the spread. I'm sure Stemkovsky will think I'm crazy for even remotely considering the 'Skins, let alone picking them in this game, but NFC East rivalry games are harsh. Eventually, I think the Giant D and Brandon Jacobs will be the difference, but it'll be close. Take the Redskins and the points and watch the Giants win 14-10.
Big Dan: The Giants, because if they lose everyone around me will be miserable.
(Ed. Note: His law school classmates are all Giant fans.)
Because no one wants to see him sad.
Seattle (-8 1/2) over St. Louis
I'm not a huge Seahawk fan. I think their running game is atrocious and their defense is mediocre at best. But the Rams might be worse than the Lions this year. It's a huge spread, but the 'Hawks are at home and they should pull away late and make this a blowout. Plus, I have no idea how the Rams are going to score. Look for the Seahawks to roll, 30-3.
Big Dan: St. Louis ... they're tougher down there.
Sesame Street tough is St. Louis tough.
Green Bay (-4) over Chicago
Ugh. Another tough game. I really have no idea. I had to talk myself into Green Bay, mainly because they're home. It's tough to win at Lambeau, even in September. But the Bears should be really good this year. They have a solid D. Matt Forte is a sensational young back and they acquired Jay Cutler in the off-season. Plus, they're actually getting points here. But at the end of the day, the Pack is at home. Rodgers is a very capable, very good QB, and I just think the Pack is a tad better than the Bears. I'm going with a 21-16 Packer win as they narrowly cover.
Big Dan: Is Ditka drivin' da bus?
Me: no
Big Dan: Green Bay.
Da Bears!
MONDAY NIGHT:
New England (-10 1/2) over Buffalo
I don't care if it's the TO show or not, New England is destroying Buffalo in this game. This is a statement game for Brady, Moss, Belichick and the entire Patriot team. They want to be top dawg again. They endured a frustrating season last year sans Brady and they're going to unload a years worth of it onto Buffalo on Monday night. This will get ugly early and stay ugly all night long. I'd take New England if they were laying 20, let alone 10. Expect a 45-17 Patriot slaughter-fest.
Big Dan: Buffalo -- New England is a lousy bunch of cheating scumbags. Besides, they just lost Teddy Kennedy. I say twist the knife.
Twisting the knife.
San Diego (-9 1/2) over Oakland
It's in Oakland and for a moment I was tempted to take the Raiders and the points, but then I remembered two things: One, LT LOVES to run all over the Raiders and two, the Raiders are absolutely terrible. This one won't be pretty either, as we get two stinkers on Monday night. Watch the Super-chargers roll, 34-10.
Big Dan: Oakland. You have to root for people who dress like Darth Vader.
Raider fans are a straaaange bunch.
Well, there you have it. Week 1's picks are in. We'll take another look at these next week and see how well I did vs. Big Dan. It won't even be close. I'm gonna get destroyed.
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