MIDSEASON FANTASY FOCUS - QUARTERBACKS! » sportvent.com

Midseason Fantasy Focus - Quarterbacks!

by Matt Minucci

 

brady manning

I bet they're talking about Giselle.

It's FANTASY TIME here on Sportvent. The Fantasy Football season is past it's midway point and is now hurtling full speed ahead towards the playoffs. Many standard head-to-head points based leagues have played around 9 of their 13 or 14 regular season games, and the post-season is looming.

I figured we were long overdue for an article taking a look at the best - and worst - that the 2009 Fantasy NFL season had to offer.

Today, we'll be taking a look at the Quarterbacks - and let me tell you, it's been quite a year for quarterbacks in the NFL. Eleven QBs have a rating of 90 or higher. There have been some truly studly Quarterbacks in the NFL this season, and we're going to start with what I like to call: The Nifty Nine.

THE NIFTY NINE

nifty baby

I wish I'd drafted one of these nine.

Nine QBs have truly shone brighter than all the others this year, due to their great play as well as their ability to stay healthy and avoid interceptions. Within this group of nine elite QBs we have three groups of three. First up, the 3 no-brainers. You drafted them early, you expected great things from them, and boy, they have not disappointed you. If you have one of these three QBs, just sit back and enjoy the rest of the season - and pray they don't get hurt.

1. DREW BREES, New Orleans Saints 

Drew Brees

I love the effort by the Buc defender down on the ground there.

Brees is the generator that powers the vaunted 2009 Saint offensive attack. He's had a monster first half, tossing the pigskin to a bevy of receivers that include Marques Colston, Devrey Henderson, Robert Meachem, Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey. Brees doesn't care who he throws to, just so long as you're open and can gain a lot of ground. He's tossed a surprisingly low 265 passes, completing 181 of them, for 2336 yards. He's thrown for an NFL best 17 TDs against just 7 INTs, good for an NFL best 106.1 QB rating. Brees has also ran in 2 scores, which is always nice when a QB does that. Among the elite, there are none better than Drew Brees. He should continue to sling the ball in the 2nd half and will easily finish with 30+ TDs and over 4000 yards.

2. PEYTON MANNING, Indianapolis Colts

Manning

I've just pissed off every Colt fan on the planet...for like, no reason.

Peyton has been doing it so well, so consistently, for so long, you really forget how great he truly is. Manning is having an MVP-caliber season, and one every bit as good as Brees. Like Brees, Manning was probably taken as one of the first QBs in nearly all fantasy drafts, and he's produced like one of the best. Manning has thrown to his two big targets: Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark, but he's also spread the ball around to newcomers Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon - as well as RB Joseph Addai. Manning has completed 221 of 313 attempts, striking for 16 TDs against just 5 picks. He's tossed for 2545 yards and his QB rating is a sterling 105.2. Every bit the equal of Brees, Manning is making a claim for another MVP award. There's no reason to think Manning won't continue to put up amazing numbers over the 2nd half, and should once more net 30+ TDs and 4200 yards. So expect more of the same from Peyton for the rest of '09.

3. TOM BRADY, New England Patriots

brady

God, I hate Tom Brady.

Brady was coming off a major injury that cost him all of last season. Many wondered if ol' Tom Terrific could still get behind center and sling it like he did in 2007. Brady started off slow, probably having to shake off the rust of missing an entire year. But he's heated up lately and is positively cruising now, completing 204 of 310 passes fro 2364 yards. Brady has tossed 16 TDs against just 5 INTs and has a QB rating of 99.2. Brady has even ran for 1 score. Brady has his favorite target - Wes Welker - back and healthy for the 2nd half, and has re-established a good rapport throwing the deep ball to Randy Moss. There's no reason not to expect another 12-14 TDs and 1700 yards from Brady the rest of the way - which would give him around 30 TDs and 4000 yards - a great season from a great QB.

After the big 3 - Brady, Manning and Brees - there was a ton of uncertainty regarding QBs heading into 2009. Who would be the big guns that would step up? Who would be a bust? Who could be trusted? Who just plain sucked? Well, these next 3 guys really stepped up this year to slot in at 4, 5 and 6 respectively, behind the big 3. But what makes these next 3 so unique is that I'm guessing most fantasy owners did not imagine these 3 QBs would put up the numbers that they have this season. Three of the most surprising QBs from '09 so far are:

4. BRETT FAVRE, Minnesota Vikings

favre

What? He's friggin' old.

Who'd a thunk it? Brett seemed all but done after a disastrous season with the Jets. But it turns out, Brett was playing with a bad arm - which he got fixed in the offseason. This year, Brett is back with the team he desperately wanted to play for - the Minnesota Vikings. All so he could stick right up the Packers...well...you know. And he has. Brett has led the Vikes to the top of the NFC Norris division, playing in a high-percentage, short-passing offense. Favre has completed 174 of 256 passes for just 1925 yards, but has tossed an astounding 16 TDs against just 3 INTs - the best ratio in the NFL. While I'm skeptical that the ancient Favre can maintain this torrid pace for the remainder of year, the Vikings have done a fairly good job protecting him, so he should hold up. I'd expect another 10-12 TDs and 1500 yards from Favre in the 2nd half - which will give him a fine season of around 3500 yards and 28 TDs.

5. BEN ROETHLISBERGER, Pittsburgh Steelers

big ben

Horrible photoshop...but it made me laugh.

Big Ben has survived a troubled off-season to come back an lead an impressive Steeler aerial attack. With 185 completions in 262 attempts, Roethlisberger has amassed 2295 yards and 14 TDs on the year, with just 7 INTs. He's also rushed for 2 TDs and sits near the top of the NFL in QB efficiency with an impressive 104.1 rating. That's quite a solid season from someone that many fantasy gurus felt was best served as a backup QB on fantasy squads. Big Ben's been every bit the solid starter to borderline star QB. The 2nd half should bring more of the same, though with the emergence of Rashaard Mendenhall and a slightly diminished focus on the passing game, Roethlisberger's numbers could slip a little bit. Still, figure on him netting 25-26 total TDs on the year, and close to 4000 yards passing. Nothing wrong with those numbers from your #1 QB.

6. MATT SCHAUB, Houston Texans 

schaub

Matt Schaub has been a cannon-armed hero in Houston.

Perhaps the most surprising name in the top 6. Many people expected Schaub to have a very good year with the Texans. He had a strong, pass catching RB in Steve Slaton. A solid WR corps led by all-world talent Andre Johnson, solid secondary WR Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels. So, the elements were there for Schaub to be good. But I'm sure no one thought he'd be this good. A large part has to do with his rapport with TE Owen Daniels - as the two combined for some huge plays - and stats - during the first half. However, Daniels has been lost for the season due to injury, and it remains to be seen if Schaub's numbers will suffer. There's a chance Kevin Walter - who's actually been a bust this year - could pick up some of the slack, but I'd proceed with caution. Either way, Schaub's 1/2 season numbers are superb, as he's thrown a whopping 326 passes, completing 220 of them for 2653 yards, 17 TDs (against 9 INTS) and a QB rating of 98.1. Schaub's attempts, yards and TD passes all lead the NFL. I'd say even without Daniels he should amass 30 TDs and well over 4000 yards - but his 2nd half numbers could suffer a bit with the loss of Daniels.

Rounding out the Nifty Nine, we sort of have the best of the rest - of the elite. These last 3 QBs are the ones who, while not surprises like Schaub, Favre and Roethlisberger, have stepped up to set themselves apart from the rest of the mediocre QBs around the NFL to become invaluable members of any fantasy squad.

7. AARON RODGERS, Green Bay Packers

rodgers

Awesome porn-star moustache for Rodgers there.

Rodgers is a perfect example of a fantastic fantasy QB who's not a very good 'real' QB. He puts up gaudy - oh so gaudy - numbers, doesn't seem to make many mistakes, has a terrific QB rating - but just doesn't win games. He can't seem to make the big play to pull out a win in a tough game - or he amasses tons of stats in garbage time - or, usually, he holds onto the ball for too long and gets sacked, killing an important drive. None of those show up in the fantasy boxscore - so none of us should really care. He's not getting benched, his numbers are extraordinary, so...if you're not a Packer fan, just sit back and enjoy the Aaron Rodgers show. He's completed 164 of 260 passes, for 2255 yards, 16 TDs and just 5 INTs. He's also scrambled/rushed for an impressive 214 yards - most among all QBs - and scored 2 TDs on the ground. His QB rating is a scintillating 103.3. So, fantasy-wise, there's absolutely nothing wrong with Aaron Rodgers - he's a fine #1 QB for any team lucky enough to have him. I'd expect more of the same in the 2nd half, as the Pack defense is weak, their running game is spotty and they're gonna have to either win some shootouts or play from behind a lot. 30 TD and 4000 yards are a given.

8. PHILIP RIVERS, San Diego Chargers

Rivers

This pic never gets old.

With the complete disappearance of the Charger running game, the Bolts have come to rely more and more on the lightening arm of Philip Rivers - which is just fine with him. Rivers has thrown for 2245 yards on 166 completions in 274 attempts. He's got 14 TDs opposite just 6 INTs and has a crisp 94.6 QB rating. Rivers even added a rushing TD during the first half. As the Chargers try to over-take the Broncos in the AFC West, expect to see Norv Turner turn to Rivers more and more. Now, with Malcoln Floyd emerging behind all-pro WR Vincent Jackson and all-pro TE Antonio Gates, Rivers has plenty of weapons to put up solid stats in the second half. In fact, I think he'll reach 30 TDs - which means 16 TDs the rest of the way - a nice number to put in the bank. He should also get around 3800-4000 yards passing to boot.

9. TONY ROMO, Dallas Cowboys

Romo

Maybe someday the Cowboy season will end without both me and Romo crying.

I almost didn't include Romo on this list. But he really doesn't belong with the mediocre dozen or so QBs that I left off this list. Sure he's goofy, and yes, he's never won a playoff game - and precious few other 'big' games, but he's got the stats - and in Fantasy-land, that's all you really care about. Of course, I'd caution any fantasy owner to be wary of Romo in December, as his numbers have historically nose-dived in crunch-time. But perhaps things will be different this year. Early in the season, Romo's numbers suffered as he struggled to adjust to the Cowboy offense without TO. But then he discovered Miles Austin, who's been a stunning discovery in both the real NFL and in fantasy-land. To go with the new-found Austin, the Cowboys have a decent group of WRs surrounding Romo, including Patrick Crayton, Roy Williams and Sam Hurd. Jason Witten is still there at TE - thought he's been used to block more lately. And the Cowboys boast 3 good receiving backs in Barber, Choice and Felix Jones. In 264 attempts, Romo has completed 159 passes, for 2215 yards, 13 TDs and just 5 INTs - which is great for Romo. He's also ran for 70 yards and a TD. These numbers give him a QB rating of 95.8 - better than all but 7 guys in the NFL (and all 7 are on this list above him). I'd say expect Romo to get 26-28 TDs and 3800 yards on the year.

So, those are your fabulous ninesome (is ninesome a word?) - 9 great QBs - and what's interesting, that in a standard 10 or 12 team league - if you assume that all 9 of these guys are on different teams ( which is NOT always the case ), then really, there's almost been 1 great QB for everybody. There are ten more QBs out there who are decidedly mediocre - they've had some great games, some bad games and dealt with injuries. They can win you a game or lose you a game - but they won't KILL your season, nor will they guarantee you a shot in the promised land. To run through them quickly:

THE TEPID TEN

10. KURT WARNER, Arizona Cardinals *BUST*

Warner had a game with 5 TDs AND a game with 5 INT's this year, so it's been an up and down season for the aging veteran. However, Warner was probably selected by many fantasy owners as a QB to get after the top 3 or 4 guys were gone, so in that sense, he's sort of been a disappointment this year. He's got 16 TDs and 11 INTs, which is good, but not great. But if you take away his one huge game and his one awful game, he's got 11 TDs and 6 INTs, which is pretty pedestrian. The nagging ankle injury to Anquan Boldin has hurt, but overall, Warner just hasn't been dominating. He's been pretty solid though, with 2175 yards and an 88.0 QB rating, so it will tough to upgrade over him as it's unlikely one of the Top Nine are available. So, basically, you're stuck with him - ride it out and hope for the best.

11. JAY CUTLER, Chicago Bears *BUST*

Cutler started out like gang-busters for the Bears, but he's been far too inconsistent and made far too many poor or errant throws to be considered even remotely elite. He's tossed for just 2046 yards and his 14-12 TD-INT ratio is not very good. He has scrambled for 108 yards and a TD on the ground though. Like Warner, it's tough to see how you can upgrade from him and he's too good to bench for a lesser gamble. You might be able to package him in a deal to an unsuspecting owner for Brett Favre, but in all likelihood, you'll have to just stick with him and pray.

12. ELI MANNING, New York Giants

eli manning

I wonder who thought this was a good idea?

I'm sure Eli was taken by many fantasy owners as either a long shot to emerge as an elite QB or a top backup - and that's pretty much what he's been. He was what we thought he was! But keep in mind, his numbers are skewed by two things - one, he's one of the few QBs to have not had a bye yet - which means he's played 9 games and not 8. And two, he had a hot stretch wherein he threw 9 TDs against just 1 INT over 4 games. Games 2 thru 5. In games 1 and 6 thru 9 - a 5 game period - he's thrown 6 TD's and 7 INTs. Which is not very good. Overall, Manning is a borderline fantasy starter who has 15 TDs against 8 INTs and 2070 yards - good for a 89.5 rating. If he's your starter, you better be solid at RB and WR. Manning won't kill you, but he probably won't win you any games either. And what's worse, the Giants appear to be in a freefall - and Manning in a woeful slump. Proceed with caution. In fact, you might want to try to trade for a backup plan.

13. CARSON PALMER, Cincinnati Bengals

Palmer has been good, not great. He's bounced back a bit since a terrible year last year, but he doesn't resemble the rocket-armed Palmer of old. This new age Carson falls somewhere in the middle and should only be starting for you in deeper leagues. He has thrown for 14 TDs against just 7 INTs but only has 1832 yards and a 89.5 QB rating. He has also rushed for a TD - but I wouldn't count on too many more of those. Nothing flashy, but Palmer won't kill you either.

14. JOE FLACCO, Baltimore Ravens

flacco

He's just excited to be a pro football playa!

Flacco started out with an amazing 8 TDs through his first 4 games - but he's only managed 4 TDs since then, so you could say he's come back down to earth. Overall, he's got 2044 yards, 12 TDs and 7 INTs - for a solid 90.2 rating...but given the Ravens reliance on Ray Rice, I wouldn't rely on Flacco to be anything more than a fantasy backup.

15. MATT RYAN, Atlanta Falcons *BUST, SLEEPER*

Ok, I hear you. "How the $%& can a guy be a bust AND a sleeper. Bear with me. I'll tell you. Ryan came into this year with a ton of promise and a lot of people - myself included - thought he'd take the next step and move into elite company ,especially given the addition of Tony Gonzalez. He hasn't done that. After netting a 5-1 TD-INT ratio over the first 2 games, Ryan has slipped to have just 13 TD against 10 INT, with a meager 1784 yards and 1 rushing TD. His QB rating is a pedestrian 82.2. So, based on those numbers, he's a bust. However, Ryan has games left against Carolina, Buffalo, 2 with Tampa Bay, one against a shreddable Giant defense, and a potential shoot-out vs. the Saints. So, I think the schedule favors a bit of a rebound for Ryan - and if you can pick him up cheap from someone that's given up on him - he could be a nice 2nd half sleeper for you - especially if you own Warner, Cutler or Eli Manning. (Or someone worse that I haven't gotten to yet on this list.)

16. KYLE ORTON, Denver Broncos

Orton

He may never throw for 3000 yards, but he'll damn sure have fun not doing it.

Orton, all things considered, has actually had a pretty decent season. But I wouldn't expect too much more from him the rest of the way. Daniels has him playing a conservative-style offense that hides many of Orton's deficiencies. He's thrown for 1838 yards, while tossing 9 TDs vs just 4 INTs. Good for an 88.2 rating. Orton is a prime example of the right QB for the right system in 'real' football. He's not ideal for your fantasy team.

17. DAVID GARRARD, Jacksonville Jaguars

Garrard is the definition of mediocre QB. Even with all-world RB Maurice Jones-Drew and the emergence of Mike Sims-Walker to go with Mercedes Lewis and Torry Holt, Garrard can only managed 6 TDs against 5 INTs and 1867 passing yards. His QB rating is 81.8 and he's rushed for 191 yards and a TD.

The last two guys on this list come with a lot of promise as well as cautionary flags. They could be close to the elite, except for injuries that have derailed some - or all of their 2009 campaign:

18. DONOVAN MCNABB, Philadelphia Eagles *SLEEPER*

McNabb was injured in the opener against Carolina and didn't return until Week 5. Since his return, he's been pretty solid, albeit not spectacular, as he's tossed for 1235 yards, 10 TDs and just 3 INTs for a fantastic 95.5 QB rating. He's also ran for 74 yards and a score. McNabb is a top tier starter - IF he can stay healthy. So, calling McNabb a sleeper is probably not accurate - as I imagine you'd be hard pressed to get him in your leagues. However, if you have him already OR if you can manage to pick him up from an owner who's down on him - whether it be due to his injuries or that the guy's a disgruntled Eagle fan, I'd try to grab McNabb for the stretch run. He's got games against porous passing defenses like San Diego, Chicago, Washington, Atlanta, the Giants and San Francisco. McNabb could put up some pretty impressive numbers down the stretch.

19. MATT HASSELBACK, Seattle Seahawks

Hasselback is the definition of a frustrating player to own. He plays two games, then misses two with nagging injuries, then he plays two more, then gets hurt again, then plays two more. Now, this week, he's hurt again (though he's listed as probable), as he's got a sore throwing shoulder to go with broken ribs. When he plays, he's great, tossing 10 TDs against just 4 INTs, 1307 yards and an 88.0 rating. But you never know when he's going to play - or even if he's going to make it through the entire game. Stay away.

If you don't have at least one of these 19 QBs on your roster as your starting QB (and really, you should have 1 of the top 9, and 1 of the remaining 10 as your backup - leave the dregs for the losers in your league), you probably shouldn't be playing Fantasy Football. The remaining "Dregs" of the league make up waiver wire fodder. However, I will give you a note about a couple of DEEP sleepers for the 2nd half:

THE FUTILE FIFTEEN

futile

Futility.

20. ALEX SMITH, San Francisco 49ers *SLEEPER*

Smith hasn't done much, tossing for just 6 TDs, 5 INT and 690 yards in relief of Uber-BUST, Shaun Hill. But he's got a fairly favorable schedule the rest of the way, and seems to have found a rapport with TE Vernon Davis. If you're desperate for QB help, Smith could pay off nicely for you. But only if you're desperate.

21. JAKE DELHOMME, Carolina Panthers *BUST*

Delhomme was so atrocious in the first half, he was likely discarded on the trash heap by many frustrated owners. Tossing an unsightly 13 INTs against just 5 TDs, and 1463 yards, Delhomme has an abysmal 61.7 QB rating. The Panthers seem to have a renewed commitment to the running game, which means less opportunities for Delhomme to throw an INT - and also less chances he'll throw TDs. I'd stay away.

22. JASON CAMPBELL, Washington Redskins

9 TDs, 8 INT, 1677 yards passing for an 86.5 rating. Just avoid this guy. In fact, don't have any Redskins on your team, period.

23. MATT CASSEL, Kansas City Chiefs *BUST*

Cassel has disappointed in his first year in KC, with just 1256 yards, 10 TDs and 5 INTs. His 77.2 rating is very mediocre. Of course the addition of veteran WR Chris Chambers should help, as should the sudden emergence of rookie WR Lance Long. But I wouldn't rely on Cassel unless I absolutely had no other choice.

24. MARK SANCHEZ, New York Jets

mark sanchez

Mark's trying to bring sexy back to NY.

The rookie QB is struggling after starting off well. He's a great guy to have in a keeper league, as he should someday be very good. But not this year. Just 8 TDs vs 10 INTs and 1443 yards. A woeful 67.9 QB rating - though he does have 3 rushing TDs. Still, I'd avoid him.

25. MATT STAFFORD, Detroit Lions *SLEEPER*

matt stafford

This pic also never gets old.

A potential sleeper here, Stafford has been hurt and when healthy, been without star WR Calvin Johnson, who's also been hurt. With Johnson back and a weak 2nd half schedule, Stafford could put up some nice numbers. Of course, guessing which games those numbers will come in is the real feat. His QB rating is a terrible 55.9 as he's thrown 5 TDs against a whopping 12 INTs and just 1265 yards, but I think his 2nd half numbers will improve. But probably not anywhere close enough for you to want to take a chance on him.

26. CHAD HENNE, Miami Dolphins

990 yards, 4 TDs, 3 INTs and a 77. 8 average. They run the wild cat with Pat White, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Henne is interesting in real football, but in fantasy-land, avoid, avoid, avoid.

27. JOSH FREEMAN, Tampa Bay Buccaneers *SLEEPER*

Since the Bucs can't get any worse, they turned the reins over to rookie QB, Josh Freeman, who lit up the Packer secondary for 221 yards and 3 TDs in his first start. His rating for the game was 83.2 and he ran 5 times for 25 yards. There's a lot to like, and he'll probably start for the Bucs the rest of the way out. He's definitely a sleeper for a few games, since the league won't have much film on him and he'll be tough to prepare for - just ask the Packers. But be wary of rookie QBs - especially in December.

28.VINCE YOUNG, Tennesse Titans

vince young

On behalf of all us Patriots, I just wanna thank you for throwin' all those INTs.

After Kerry Collins produced horrific results, the Titans turn things back over to Vince Young. He won his first game back, but didn't put up much in the way of fantasy numbers. 297 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT on the year. Please. Come back next year.

29. BRADY QUINN, Cleveland Browns

After the monumentally bad showing by Derek Anderson, the Browns turn the ball back over to Brady Quinn, who had 409 yards, 1 TD and 3 INT for a 62.1 rating before being benched. I think Ronnie Brown could have more passing TDs than Quinn or Anderson the rest of the way. So..uh...avoid Quinn.

30. SHAUN HILL, San Francisco 49ers

Benched in favor of Alex Smith because Singletary felt he wasn't able to do enough to win games. His numbers weren't terrible - 943 yards, 5 TD and just 2 INT for a 79.6 rating. But they weren't good either. I list him here because he was my sleeper QB pick for 2009 to have a great year. Damn.

31. DEREK ANDERSON, Cleveland Browns

Played himself out of a job in Cleveland - and probably out of football entirely. His numbers are staggering: 681 yards, 2 TD, 9 INT, 2 rushing TDs - a 36.2 average. Cut him. Of course, if you even have him to cut, I have to question your sanity.

32. KEVIN KOLB, Philadelphia Eagles

Is riding the pine in Philly now that McNabb is back and healthy. I only list him here for McNabb owners - you must grab him if you're making a playoff run. When McNabb went down, Kolb came in and completed 61 of 96 passes for 741 yards and 4 TDs (and 3 INTs) in really just 2 games. Really good numbers for Kolb and great insurance if McNabb goes down. If you don't have McNabb, ignore him.

33. KERRY COLLINS, Tennessee Titans *BUST*

Look, no one thought Collins was going to be great this year, but many people probably grabbed him thinking he could be a servicable bye-week replacement. He wasn't. 1071 yards, 5 TDs and 8 INTs for a sorry 62.0 rating. Benched for Vince Young. Avoid.

34. JaMARCUS RUSSELL, Oakland Raiders

jamarcus

JaMarcus Russell's off season conditioning program.

Ahh JaMarcus! The number one pick, in my mind, if you're playing in a bizarro league that rewards futility, because no matter how bad he gets, the Raiders simply will not bench him. He's thrown for 1000 yards and just 2 TD to go with 9 INT and a 48.3 rating - AND HE'S STILL STARTING! Awesome. If you have him, and you're NOT in a bizarro league...just....just quit now. Try Canasta.

Hope you enjoyed our mid-season rundown on Fantasy QBs. Next up, we'll run through the Running Backs. It's been a strange and winding trip for the halfback in 2009.

texan cheerleader

Cheerleaders are so much fun. 

 


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