FANTASY FOOTBALL 2009 - THE RUNNING BACKS!

by Matt Minucci

Football! Sport of the gods! It's time to kick the tires and light the fires, big daddy!  

Even Maverick is ready for some football.

One of the hallmarks of the onset of the NFL season is fantasy football. Fantasy football has exploded on the scene over the last 10-12 years and now has become as American as Apple Pie and Alex Stemkovsky.

My editor, relaxing after a grueling day of cocaine trafficking.

I, myself, am a member of three fantasy football leagues. I'd be in more but my wife is already ready to kill me for the three I'm already in. So, I thought it might be fun to give you all a little primer into who I think are this seasons must have players for any fantasy team.

I've used many of these myself.

Today we'll be looking at the running backs. For many years, conventional wisdom always said to take the two best running backs available and fill out the rest of your team behind them. But in recent years this thinking has fallen back a bit with the advent of tandem running backs and three-headed monster squads. In fact, many teams employ at least two running backs, in part to keep their main back healthy and to also switch up a "thunder and lightening" style attack.

The Giants have Brandon Jacobs and Ahmed Bradshaw, the Panthers, D'Angelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, the Steelers, Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall, the Titans go with Chris Johnson and Lendale White, while the Cowboys are going into the season looking to split time amongst Marion Barber, Felix Jones AND Tashard Choice. Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush reside in New Orleans, Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams are in Miami, Darren McFadden and Mike Bush are in Oakland; Even the vaunted Ladanien Tomlinson looks to be in a time share with Darren Sproles. And no one knows exactly who's running the ball in Denver. Right now it could be LaMont Jordan, Peyton Hillis, rookie Knoshawn Moreno and Ryan Torain. I think they're even giving Stemkovsky a look.

A small look. Wow did Stemkovsky get crushed there.

It can be maddening for a fantasy football owner to try to find the right combination of running backs to be successful. On top of that, if you do grab a top tier RB, you almost certainly need to make sure you acquire his backup or "handcuff" running back. This can be very difficult if your pick is, say, Pierre Thomas in New Orleans, since Reggie Bush will almost certainly go before you're ready to draft him.

Having said all that, I'm going to give you my top 20 running backs, with what I project their stats to be along with who their backup is. Read well, and chose wisely.

Running Back

1. Adrian Peterson, Minnesota Vikings

All Day Adrian.

All day Adrian Peterson is the guy in the Minnesota Viking offense and is the best running back out there. He should be the number 1 pick taken in most drafts and the top dollar guy in most auctions - unless you're in a league where passing TDs and passing yards are weighted unbelievably high - and these leagues are rare. Peterson racked up an NFL best 1757 yards rushing last year and had 10 TDs to go along with it. I think this year there should be no reason he shouldn't get another 1500 yards and look for his TDs to shoot up to the 13-15 range. In case Peterson were to get hurt, you want to lock up his very talented backup, Chester Taylor, who had 800 yards of total offense and 6 TDs in his own right last year.

2. Michael Turner, Atlanta Falcons  

The Burner.

Michael "The Burner" Turner is a beast of a back and headlines the rushing assault in a fairly potent Falcon offense. He'll be bruising his way through defenses to help keep a light load on second year QB Matt Ryan. Turner rumbled for 1699 yards and 9 TDs last year. With an improved offensive line and offensive attack, expect more trips to the Red Zone for the Falcons, and more TDs for Turner. Expect around 1350 yards rushing and 10-12 touchdowns for the Falcon's power back. Turner's backup is the capable and extremely fast scat back Jerious Norwood. Norwood had over 800 yards total offense and 6 TDs last year and is a great handcuff for Turner owners.

3. Maurice Jones-Drew, Jacksonville Jaguars

MJD!

MJD lived in the shadow of Fred Taylor for several years down in Jacksonville and he thrived, rumbling for 800-900 rushing yards a year as well as being a receiving threat out of the backfield with 500-600 yards receiving. A dual threat, MJD now stands alone in Jacksonville, with the ancient Fred Taylor having been put to pasture in New England. Last year, splitting time with Taylor, MJD amassed 824 yards rushing and 565 yards receiving. He also chipped in 14 TDs. Now all by himself,  there's no reason to think he can't get 1100 yards on the ground and another 400-500 in the air. 10-12 TDs also seem like a lock. MJD doesn't have a reliable backup right now. Alvin Pearman and Chauncy Washington are the veterans in camp, but my money is on rookie Rashad Jennings, who is an absolute beast. The kid benches 395 lbs (which is almost 4 stemkovskies for those scoring at home), is quick, powerful and could be a goal-line back to spell MJD at times - don't over-estimate the kid though. 4-5 TDs is probably his absolute max and I only recommend him to those OCD readers that absolutely must have their starting RBs backup.

4. D'Angelo Williams, Carolina Panthers

Rumble, young man, rumble.

Last year was supposed to be Jonathan Stewart's coming out party, as he was drafted to spearhead the Panther rushing attack. However, it was the 3rd year back D'Angelo Williams that finally lived up to his immense promise by exploding onto the scene with 1515 rushing yards and 18 TDs. He added two more through the air for 20 total TDs last year. Now, while I believe he will almost certainly come back to earth this season, and while he's splitting time still with Jonathan Stewart, the facts remain that the Panthers have one of the best if not the best offensive lines in football and Williams has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over the last two years, proving he's no fluke. Look for D'Angelo to slash his way to another 1350 yards on the ground and 12-14 TDs. My only concern would be that his handcuff, Jonathan Stewart, is a premiere back in his own right and could eat into Williams stats considerably. If Williams was in MJD's situation, he'd be my #1 pick over Peterson. But the presence of Stewart downgrades Williams slightly. Still, you really can't go wrong grabbing him anywhere in the top 4 picks.

5. Matt Forte, Chicago Bears  

Matt Forte...needs a cool nickname.

Matt Forte wasn't just a major part of the Bears offense last season...he was their ENTIRE offense. He led the team with 63 receptions for 477 yards and 4 TDs, and he carried the ball over 300 times for 1238 yards and another 8 scores. With Jay Cutler in the mix, the Bears offense should be better and Forte has a chance to improve on his already impressive rookie numbers. I would guess that 1500 total yards and 10-12 TDs are a mortal lock for Forte, making him an excellent pick after the top 4 RBs are gone. If you are a Cutler believer, you could even make a case for taking Forte with a top 3 pick. Kevin Jones is the only relevant RB on the Bears roster and will be used to merely spell Forte at times. If he stays healthy, Forte will be one of the few backs in the NFL to log over 300 carries in 2009.

6. Steve Slaton, Houston Texans

Slash and dash, Steve, slash and dash.

I admit, this is a bit of a personal bias, as I am a big fan of Slaton, having stolen him in my fantasy league draft last season. However, there's no denying his talent and I would take him over such veteran backs as Ladanien Tomlinson, Clinton Portis, Brian Westbrook and Steve Jackson. That may seem crazy, but the Texans have a solid offense and a decent O-line. Last year Slaton ripped off 1282 yards on just 268 carries - a 4.8 ypc average and ran for 9 scores. He also caught 50 balls out of the backfield for 377 yards and another score. He amassed over 1600 yards total offense and scored 10 times as a rookie. I expect him to equal those numbers this year, making him far more reliable that any other backs that would be on the board with the 6th pick. Injury-prone back Chris Brown appears to be healthy - at least at this point - and is slated to back up Slaton. Don't expect him to eat into Slaton's numbers too much, however, as a hangnail will probably have him on the PUP list before training camp ends.

7. Ladanien Tomlinson, San Diego Chargers

LT!

At this point, it becomes increasingly difficult to set the various running backs apart. One man's LT is another man's Clinton Portis. Or Steve Jackson. There's a myriad of talented backs who all have various issues which have relegated them to outside of the top 6. Also, I'm sure that some of the backs listed between 7th and 20th on most boards will have phenomenal seasons and shoot up into the top 5. It just seems to happen that way every year, it simply becomes nothing more than guesswork. And the guess here is that Ladanien Tomlinson - LT - has one more solid season left in his 30 year old legs. LT suffered through a smattering of leg and toe injuries last year and yet still managed to run for 1110 yards and 11 TDs. He also caught 52 balls for 426 yards and another score. 1536 total yards and 12 TDs and yet everyone is saying he's done. I just don't see it. I think he should be good for another 1500 yards and 10-12 TDs and that's not too shabby. Conventional thinking says that Darren Sproles will split time with LT, but I'm not convinced Sproles will prove durable enough to be a major factor in the Chargers offense. Sproles regular season numbers were fairly pedestrian (672 total yards and 6 TDs) but he exploded in the playoffs when he subbed in for an injured LT and thus he becomes a must-get handcuff for LT owners.

8. Chris Johnson, Tennessee Titans

Like greased lightning.

Yet another 2008 rookie running back that exploded onto the scene with huge numbers, Johnson used his immeasurable quickness and his ability to explode through the hole in the line to amass 1228 rushing yards and 9 TDs last year for the Titans. He also added a receiving TD for a total of 10. Johnson is the lightening portion of the Titans' thunder and lightening running attack, with corpulent Lendale White plodding along as the thunder. Johnson is a star in the making and easily in the top 10 for RBs in the NFL. I would say he's a good bet for 1200-1300 total yards and around 8-10 TDs. Lendale White's presence casts doubt on how many scores Johnson will amass, but he's clearly the far more talented back and I simply do not see White busting 15 touchdowns again this year. Take Johnson and bank on at least 10 TDs from him.

9. Steve Jackson, St. Louis Rams 

Here's hoping his groin stays healthy.

In a perfect world, Jackson is a fantasy owner's dream. I fast, powerful back with no real backup, who can catch balls out of the backfield, carry the ball 20-25 times a game and score with impunity. So. What went wrong? Well, Jackson's health has made him such a question mark that many people will argue that I've ranked him too high at number 9. Certainly you could argue Westbrook, Barber, Jacobs, Portis, even Ronnie Brown, could all be ranked higher. Jackson's stats don't even begin to tell the story of his talent. He rushed for just 1043 yards last year and scored 8 total TDs. However, that was all in just 12 games. Jackson battled through an achy back and a sore groin last season and missed 4 full games and portions of several others. IF he can stay healthy, Jackson would be a steal in the end of the first round or beginning of the 2nd round in most drafts. However, that's a big IF. The fact that the Ram offense is absolutely wretched sort of works both ways. It's a terrible offense. Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are long gone and even standout rookie Donnie Avery is hurt and out 4-6 weeks. However, with no talent anywhere else, Steve Jackson will be expected to carry the full offensive load. Of course this means 11 men in the box against him on defense and an increased chance he gets hurt. I would estimate that Jackson has around 1400 total yards and 7-9 TDs in him, making him a decent, low-end number 1 RB for most fantasy squads. As far as a handcuff, there is no backup RB in St. Louis right now. A handful of retreads, has beens and never-will-be's are battling for the spot, with Antonio Pittman, Kenneth Darby and Samkon Gado trying to make the team. I'd take a look at Chris Ogbonnaya, a 7th round rookie out of Texas. He's being given a long look in camp so far and the Rams would much rather go with him than Pittman, Darby or Gado. A word to the wise, however. I include Ogbonnaya for completeness, so you know who Jackson's backup could be. If you find yourself drafting Ogbonnaya on draft day, I'd consider taking up knitting and leaving Fantasy football to the professionals.

10. Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia Eagles

Philly Phaithful are hoping it's Westbrook and not West-broke.

Brian Westbrook is a supremely talented runner and has been a major force in the Eagles' offensive attack over the last few years. Last year, his bottom line numbers were very impressive: 1338 total yards and 14 total TDs. However he didn't rush for 1000 yards for the first time since 2005 and he suffered through several nagging to severe injuries, including having two different surgeries in the offseason - one on his aching knee and the other to remove bone spurs from his right ankle. The latter surgery is expected to sideline him for much of training camp. It's never a good sign when a 30+ year old RB misses time in camp due to surgery and recurring injuries. While Westbrooks past numbers are tantalizing, I would think that anything more than 1200 total yards and 10 TDs, would be a miracle. If you chose to select Westbrook you must resign yourself to taking rookie RB LeSean McCoy in the middle rounds for when (not if) Westbrook goes down with an injury.

Well, that covers the top 10 RBs for Fantasy purposes. Come back tomorrow to read a run through of backs 11-20 and I will give you my top 5 sleepers and busts at the Running Back spot.

Are you ready for some football?!?!