Michael Vick. You remember him right?Former QB for the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Atlanta Falcons. Also major player in the Bad Newz Kennels dogfighting ring. It was his involvement in the latter that earned Vick an indefinite suspension from the NFL and eighteen months in federal prison.
Well it seems Mr. Vick is up for release this July and the immediate question on everyone’s mind is, “Will Vick return to the NFL?” My response would be, “Who cares?” The question is utterly pointless because even if Vick does return, the odds of him being an even remotely decent player are slim and none.
First, let’s take a look at the odds that Vick will in fact return to professional football. Let’s dispatch of any non-NFL football first. The CFL has banned any currently suspended NFL players from playing. Even if they hadn’t, a convicted felon like Vick would have almost no chance of getting a work visa to allow him to play in a foreign country – which the last time I checked, Canada was, if only barely. The Arena league might have been an option except it folded due to lack of funds from being, well, Arena League Football. There’s a new United Football League – hey there’s a great idea! A new football league to compete vs. NFL. The track record there is just marvelous. Anyway, commissioner Michael Huyghue has said Vick would be welcome to play in his new league in 2009. Of course he did. What better way to drum up press for your new league than to bring the most controversial footballer since OJ into the fold? The problem there is that Arthur Blank still holds Vick’s contract and can potentially bar Vick from playing in any pro league under threat of breach of contract. And while the Falcons owner is on record as saying there is a “Zero” percent chance of the Falcons welcoming Vick back (see: Ryan, Matt), the Falcons can still trade his contract within the NFL. Yes, you can trade the contract of a suspended player in Roger Goodall’s NFL.
So that begs the question, what are his chances of playing in the NFL in either 2009 or 2010?Well, quickly, since I think it’s a moot point at best, his odds are probably a little better than average. Roger Goodall would first have to reinstate Vick. That could go either way, but I think Goodall would ultimately give Vick another chance and lift his ban. Clearing that hurdle, Vick would have to find a team that wants him. Most NFL GMs are on such precarious footing these days that it is highly doubtful any one of them would stick their neck out and risk the public relations debacle that signing Vick would entail. And you can believe it will be an utter PR nightmare. First there’s PETA. They’re already saying they will vehemently and publicly protest any team that signs Vick. I’m sure GMs and owners will love Peta radicals hurling blood and dog feces at their fans as they’re on their way in to see Vick play. Really, the only team I can think of who’s fans are only enhanced by being smeared with feces and blood is the Oakland Raiders. I can see Al “Just Dementia Baby” Davis giving Vick a shot. And as a wild card, I’ll throw the Jets out there since they’ll give their QB job to just about anyone. (See: Favre, Brett)
But the real issue here is, what’s the point? Michael Vick hasn’t played a down in the NFL since the end of the 2006 season. In that season – when he was a spry 26 – he threw for 2400 yards, 20 TDs (with 14 picks) and he rushed for over 1000 yards (albeit with only 2 scores).He’s going to be 29 in June of this year and it’s almost certain that he won’t be in shape to play in the NFL until the 2010 season, which would put his age at a nice round 30.What made Michael Vick special wasn’t his erratic arm or his failure to utilize his various options as a QB or to pigeon-hole his passes to one specific target nearly every passing play (see Crumpler, Alge).No, what made Vick special was his ability to run at any given moment. And to run well. Now, you want a 30 year old felon who hasn’t touched the gridiron in four years to come out and run like a 26 year old gazelle in his prime?I’m sorry, the NFL does not work that way. If it did, hell, I’d show up at some team’s camp and hope to catch on as a 3rd string TE. Ok, so maybe I wouldn’t. But many other people would. The NFL is played by young men in their physical prime who focus and practice at their craft day in and day out, every day. They are at their peak mentally and physically and are honed like a razor’s edge. And now, Michael Vick thinks he can waltz back in and compete at that level?ARE YOU KIDDING ME?!?It’s not gonna happen. Will Vick be back?Probably. He desperately needs the money (see: filing, bankruptcy). And some team will think they can catch lighting in a bottle, rationalizing, “Yeah, but he’s a young thirty!” And he might flounder about for a year or two – though personally I give him six games. And then he’ll fade away. And in 10 years ESPN will do a retrospective on how he’s down on his luck and how he could have been one of the best ever. And one day, you’ll be walking in the park with your kid and you’ll see some old men tossing a pigskin around. One of them will be a graying African-american man with a soft gut but strong arm and legs of steel. And he’ll be flying past the other old men, dodging tacklers and hurling erratic bullets that miss their target by thirty feet but sure as hell look pretty as they sail away. And your kid will ask you, “Dad, is that Michael Vick?” And like John Cusak at the end of Eight Men Out, you’ll smile and shake your head and say, “No. That’s not him.”But it could be.
