2009 NFL FANTASY PREVIEW - THE QUARTERBACKS

by Matt Minucci

When you participate in sporting events - it's not whether you win or lose, it's how drunk you get. 

It's time to resume my fantasy football 2009 analysis here on Sportvent. Last time, I ran down my top picks, sleepers and busts at the running back position, and today, we're going to run through the Quarterbacks that you want to get and avoid in the NFL.

Quarterback is an interesting position this year as there aren't many clear cut number one QBs - at least, it's not as painfully obvious as it was before Tom Brady got hurt. Oh, Brady's still a top choice, but the field has closed the gap a bit. Honestly, it's all going to come down to getting lucky and hoping the guy you settle on stays healthy.  But we'll do our best here at Sportvent to make sure you're prepared and at least sort of look like you know what you're doing in this year's fantasy drafts.

The Sportvent staff readies for fantasy football season. Stemkovsky is wearing the orange hat.

For Quarterbacks, I'm going to break them down into four sections: the University of Florida division, for those QBs that excel at excellence; the USC Trojans division, for those QBs that are good, but seem to have 1 or 2 flaws that always keep them out of the top spot; the Boston College division for those QBs that epitomize mediocrity; and the Syracuse Orangemen division for those QBs that are so patently atrocious, you should only pick them for a bizarro fantasy league where you're actively trying to lose points.

Bizarro Football! My team is called Captain Custard.

THE FLORIDA GATORS DIVISION:

It's good to be a quarterback.

Tom Brady, New England Patriots

Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints

Peyton Manning, Indianapolis Colts  

Which one of these 4 doesn't belong? oh, right, Aaron Rogers. Get the hell out of here Aaron!

That's it. That's the entire top division. These are the only 3 QBs you should even remotely consider taking in the first round or beginning of the second round (unless you have a league where passing TDs are worth 5 or 6 points, then you can feel free to give them a look in the first round.)  These 3 elite QBs should put up over 30 TDs with ease and could even reach 35-40 TDs. They'll toss over 4000 yards passing - and Brees could even reach 5000 yards. They are the cream of the crop. If you have one of these 3 guys, you're set at the QB position for the entire year. Should disaster strike, as it did last year, and one of these guys falls to a dreaded injury, their backups are: Mark Brunnell in New Orleans, Kevin O'Connell in New England and Jim Sorgi in Indy. I suppose I should tell you that rookie Curtis Painter is threatening to replace Sorgi in Indy, but really, if you're trying to decide between taking Sorgi or Painter...go home, stick your head in the toilet and flush repeatedly.

Go ahead. Draft Sorgi. I dare you.

THE USC TROJAN DIVISION 

Fight on, Trojans, fight on!

Here we go with the group of QBs that most of you will wind up with. There's some gems, some potential busts and so average QBs that won't kill your team, but won't lead you to fantasy gold by themselves either. Some of the top tier guys in this division are:

Simple Kurt: "You m-m-make me h-h-happy!"

Kurt Warner, Arizona Cardinals: Warner is a good bet to toss 30 TDs and throw for close to 4000 yards IF he's healthy. Off season hip surgery and chronic hip pain give me some concern as to how healthy he'll be. He's backed up by Matt Leinart.  *Bust alert* - Warner is a severe injury risk. That along with his age earns him the potential bust tag - especially if you're looking for 30 TDs and 4000 yards from your QB. If you draft Warner, make sure you draft a solid #2 QB, because odds are, you'll probably be relying on him at some point this season.

I is a good quattebrick!

Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers: Rivers is a good young QB with several decent option in Antonio Gates and Vincent Jackson. But lack of overall receiving depth and a strong running game keep Rivers out of the top tier. Well, that and the fact he's just not good enough as those top guys. Expect 28 TDs and 3800 yards passing. He's backed up by the legendary Billy Volek.

Rogers vowed never to shave his beard until Brett Favre retired.

Aaron Rogers, Green Bay Packers: Rogers filled in admirably for the departed Brett Favre last season and looks to improve on his solid numbers. I'd say 27 TDs and somewhere between 3700 and 3900 yards passing. Rogers is a notch below the elite at this point in his career and I also question the quality of the Packers' wideouts. Matt Flynn and Brian Brohm are competiting in camp to carry Rogers jock.

I was gonna go with a Jessica Simpson joke here, but I thought Romo sitting outside his own endzone crying was funnier.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys: Gone is that whinning little princess that filled Romo's days with misery. And Romo also broke up with Jessica Simpson, so the focus is squarely on Tony's shoulders this season. He's still got security blanket Jason Witten and Roy Williams will be there from the get go. So, we'll see how he does. Though without TO, I expect his TDs to slip down to around 27 and his passing yards to be in the 3700-3800 range. He's still far too mistake prone to be considered close to the elite. He'll be backed up by Jon Kitna who is a decent get for Romo owners.  

Ok, Matt, see here...this X under center...it's you. You're the Quart-Er-Back. Say it with me, slowly.

Matt Schaub, Houston Texans: I admit it, I'm crushing hard on the Texans offense this season. I think they are one of the most promising up and coming young offenses in all of football, with Steve Slaton, Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter and Owen Daniels. And Matt Schaub is the head of it all. I like him for 25-27 TDs and 3500 yards passing. He's backed up by Dan Orlovsky, so both the Texans fans and Schaub owners will be praying Schaub stays healthy. *Sleeper Alert* - I don't know if Schaub really qualifies as a sleeper. Let's say a 'light' sleeper. But I would expect big numbers from him this year. 

Yes Matt, it sure was.

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons: Ryan is among the top - if not the top - of the young QBs in the NFL right now. The addition of Tony Gonzalez to the Falcon offense can only improve Ryan's solid numbers from last season. His TDs will remain somewhat low thanks to the presence of bruising RB Michael Turner, but with Roddy White and Gonzalez there, I expect Ryan to continue developing with 22-24 TDs and 3500 yards passing. He'll be backed up by either Chris Redman or D J Shockley and neither should warrant your consideration.

It's just not an article til we see McNabb puking.

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles: We're coming to the end of the USC division now but I am giving ol' McNabb one more season in the upper tier of QBs. He's got some decent weapons with DeSean Jackson, Brian Westbrook and rookies Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. I like McNabb to go for 20-22 TDs and around 3500-3800 yards passing. The signing of Vick is...curious...to say the least since Kevin Kolb has been considered the heir apparent to McNabb. Right now, Vick is running the practice squad offense and it's difficult to say how he might be utilized. I'd still draft McNabb though, once all the other top QBs are off the board and hope for the numbers I predicted above. He should get them. *Potential Bust* - I'm not sure, but the signing of Vick just doesn't seem to bode well for this Philly team. I'm not sure it will seriously impact McNabb, but I'd be a little cautious. Add to that the questionable health of Brian Westbrook and McNabb himself and I'd say there's a slight chance this is the year McNabb washes out. But only a slight chance.

Seriously, Carson. Might be time to fire that agent of yours.

Carson Palmer, Cincinnati Bengals: Gone are the days when Carson Palmer would be mentioned in the same breath as Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. Palmer is still a solid option but the Bengal offense is far from scary. And with TJ Houshmandzedah gone to Seattle, the offense is even more anemic. Palmer will be hoping for a return to glory from Chad Ochocince nee Johson as well as help from the likes of Laverneous Coles, rookie Quan Cosby and Chris Henry (if he can stay out of jail). Expect Palmer to put up solid if not pedestrian numbers to the tune of 20-22 TDs and around 3500 yards passing. He's backed up by J T O'Sullivan if you were curious. Which, I'm sure, you weren't. 

THE BOSTON COLLEGE DIVISION

Boston College. 

Well now we are sinking to the bottom of the desirable list for QBs - at least, for fantasy purposes. Beyond this, you're talking the real dregs. But for now, let's focus on the positives and run through the decidedly mediocre QBs who can occasionally put up a decent week for you, and generally won't kill you.

Additionally, it is here that you'll find some of the best sleeper value for QBs.

Wrong way, dummy.

Matt Cassel, Kansas City Chiefs: Cassel cashed in for a huge payday after posting solid numbers filling in for an injured Tom Brady last year (21 TDs, 3600 yards). The Chiefs signed him to be their starting QB and Cassel looks to continue putting up big numbers in KC. There's just a slight problem with that. Tony Gonzalez is in Atlanta. And guys like Dwayne Bowe, Bobby Engram and Amani Toomer aren't nearly as talented as Randy Moss and Wes Welker.  If you take Cassel, I think you'd have to hope for 20 TDs and 3400 yards passing. I think these would be extraordinary numbers for him. Personally, I think Cassel is going to fall flat on his face and become a giant BUST.  He is my highest rated lock of the year to be a bust. But again, if you must take him and hope for the best, don't expect more than 20 TDs. He would make a solid bye-week gamble. He's backed up by Tyler Thigpen and Brodie Croyle, both of whom are battling for the #2 QB position in KC this summer.

Cutler showed more personality on South Park than he has his entire career.

Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears: Whoa, BUST alert number 2! Well, I'm not so sure Cutler will be a bust, but if you're expecting numbers close to what he put up in Denver, you're fooling no one but yourself. He doesn't have anywhere near the talent at WR, with Earl Bennet, Devin Hester, Rashied Davis and Julio Iglesias (or somebody like that) comprising as woeful a WR corp as you'll see this side of the Rams. I'd say if Cutler got you 20 TDs and 3500 yards passing, you'd be given a gift. He'll probably make a solid #2 QB, but you don't want to be relying on him as your main QB. He's backed up by Alex Stemkovsky, using his football pseudonym, Caleb Hanie (pronounced "but-tocks").

This is obviously photoshopped, but damn if it don't look funny.

Eli Manning, New York Giants: I'm really not sure what the hell the G-men were thinking, giving Eli Manning 97.5 million over 6 years, but every other QB on this list just ejaculated all over themselves. Yes, I went there. Despite the Giants seemingly overflowing confidence in Peyton's little brother, I'm not convinced. First of all, he's got no go-to WR since Plaxico Burress shot himself. Giggity. He'll be throwing to Dominick Hixon, Steve Smith, Sinorce Moss, Mario Manningham and rookie Hakim Nicks. I just don't see Manning putting up huge numbers in what will probably be a ball-control offense. Giggity. Expect no more than 20 TDs and around 3400 yards passing. Manning will be backed up by the Ghost of Jeff Hostetler. David Carr will also fill in.  

I'm positive Ben never touched that girl. Doesn't he look like a prince?

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers: Ah Big Ben. Will you never learn? Despite having to deal with sexual assault allegation this offseason, the quarterback of the defending superbowl champion returns looking for back-to-back titles. Roethlisberger runs a great offense, but the Steelers are a bruising, run-first team and with Willie Parker, Rashard Mendenhall and Mewelde Moore all in the backfield, they look to continue their running ways. Big Ben had a big year two years ago with 32 TDs but this seems to have "Ben" a "Big" aberration, as he's had 17 TDs 3 other times and 18 TDs once. I'd say 17 is a rock solid bet again for Roethlisberger this year, but I'll be kind and say expect around 20 TDs and 3400 yards passing. Solid #2 QB numbers. He'll be backed up by either Dennis Dixon or Charlie Batch who are battling for the job in camp, with Dixon winning it so far.  

Matt Homerback?

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks upgraded their WR corpse (it was deadweight last year) in a big way by signing T J Houshmandzedah in the offseason. They also are hoping Deion Branch and Nate Burleson are healthy. Moreover, they're hoping Hasselbeck himself is healthy, as he suffered through injuries last season that pretty much destroyed his fantasy value. If he's right this year, expect 20-22 TDs and 3300-3500 yards passing. Injuries and age are a concern for Hasselbeck though. He'll be backed up by Seneca Wallace.  

This is the kind of never-say-die attitude I want on my fantasy team!

Jake Delhomme, Carolina Panthers: Against my better judgement, I'm putting Delhomme on this portion of the list. I've got nothing against Delhomme and he plays for a very, very good Panther team. But that team will run the ball down your throat every day of the week, and about 45 times on Sundays. Delhomme won't kill you, usually, but he's not going to put up a ton of stats for you either. I'd have to say 16-18 TDs and 3000 yards are a best cast scenario. Delhomme is backed up by Josh McCown. He has no business on your fantasy roster tho.  

If you can hold a fish, you can hold a football!

Shawn Hill, San Francisco 49ers: SLEEPER ALERT! This is my big sleeper pick at QB for 2009. I think Shawn Hill is surrounded by some very good young talent - especially if Michael Crabtree's handlers come to their senses and sign with San Fran. With or without Crabtree, Hill still has Vernon Davis at TE, Josh Morgan, Isaac Bruce and Arnez Battle at WR. These aren't household names, (well, except Bruce, but he's 84 years old.) but they are very good WRs and Hill knows how to get them the ball. I think Hill will go for 22 TDs and 3300 yards passing, which are numbers that will stun a lot of people, but if you have him on your team, you'll be loving it. He's backed up by a classic rookie draft bust, Alex Smith.

This will be Edwards after a month of TO bitching at him. 

Trent Edwards, Buffalo Bills: I'm forced to put Edwards here as the presence of Terrell Owens to compliment Lee Evans, gives Edwards two exceptional options at WR. I'm not particularly high on Edwards and I don't think his overall numbers will be very good. But he does have TO there and TO does tend to make his QBs better. Best case, I can see Edwards getting 20 TDs and 3000 yards. He's backed up by Ivy Leaguer, Ryan Fitzpatrick.

SYRACUSE ORANGEMEN DIVISION

It's Syracuse, whaddya want from me?

You do not want any of these QBs starting for your fantasy team. You just don't.  

Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins: A classic case of a decent real life QB, but a lousy fantasy QB. Expect nothing more than 16-18 TDs and 3000 yards. Todd Collins and Colt Brennan are battling to be his backup.

Chad Pennington, Miami Dolphins: Chad had a resurgence last year with the 'Fins, but his arm is still a wet noodle. I can't see more than 16 TDs and 2800 yards for him. He'll be backed up by Chad Henne. Pat White will be merely a gimmick on the Wildcat formation.  

Brady Quinn, Cleveland Browns/Derek Anderson, Cleveland Browns: If I was sure Quinn would be the starter, he'd be in a higher tier. But the presence of Derek Anderson looms large over Quinn. The slightest mistake could land Quinn on the bench, watching Anderson lead the Browns. However, I can't recommend Brown either, since Quinn is the starter for now. With Kellen Winslow gone, Jamal Lewis old and Braylon Edwards having lost his hands, I'm not sure you want any part of this offense in any event. I'll give Quinn a "deep sleeper" moniker, and you're welcome to take a chance on him. You might get lucky. But I'd say he's good for no more than 16-18 TDs and 2800 yards passing, at best.  

Kerry Collins, Tennessee Titans: Collins put up decent numbers after he replaced the ineffective and downright nutty Vince Young. But the Titans want Collins to just not make any mistakes, so his numbers aren't all that great for fantasy purposes. Expect no more than 15-17 TDs and 2800 yards passing. Vince Young will back him up if he doesn't hang himself in the preseason.

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars: Another of these "make no mistakes" QBs that helms an offense that relies on a stout running game, expect no better than 15 TDs and 3000 yards from Garrard. Todd Bouman will back up.  

Kyle Orton, Denver Broncos: BUST. Orton is another prime candidate to bust in my opinion. Despite having a lot of weapons on offense, I think Orton is downright awful. On the heels of this, I think it will be Chris Simms that will eventually take over in Denver. He's a DEEP SLEEPER for me, and I advise either spending a very late round pick on him as your 3rd or 4th QB, or watching him on the waiver wire. Best case, I can't see Orton getting more than 16-18 TDs and 3000 yards, but I doubt he'll even come close to those numbers.

Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions: If you're running a 'keeper' league, Stafford vaults up these rankings, as he's got the tools to be very good down the road, and the presence of Calvin "Megatron" Johnson will only increase his value. However, in a single season league, rookie QBs very rarely make much of an impact, and a rookie taking over for a team that went 0-16 the year before is definitely not who I'd be targeting. I can't see more than 15 TDs and 2500 yards. And expect around 20 INTs with that. Right now Daunte Culpepper is slated to start ahead of Stafford, but Stafford is clearly the future in Detroit, and it shouldn't be long before it's Culpepper that's backing him up. Taking Culpepper in any capacity is not advised.  

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets: USC rookie Sanchez is battling Kellen Clemens for the starting job in NY, but neither is an advisable fantasy option. Again, I like Sanchez in keeper leagues, but not as a starter this year. Whoever is the starter, I wouldn't expect more than 14-15 TDs and 2500 yards passing.  

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens: Flacco had a decent rookie season last year, but I sense a sophomore slump coming. He's looked terrible in the preseason and the Raven WR corps is woeful, even with the now un-retired Derrek Mason back in the fold. 15-16 TDs and 2800 yards at best. Troy Smith will back him up.

Sage Rosenfels, Minnesota Vikings: Another team where the starting QB is murky. Right now it's Rosenfels, but if he struggles, the Vikes will be quick to put former starter Tavaris Jackson back in. Neither are advisable as a starter or even a backup. Expecting 15-18 TDs and 2800-3000 yards from Rosenfels would be a miracle. Jackson's top end numbers would be significantly lower, but he might run in a few. Ignore both.  

Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams: I can't even begin to tell you how long I stubbornly held on to Bulger in a fantasy league I was in. It was years. It was very foolish of me. Learn from my mistakes. No Bruce, No Holt, No Chance for Bulger. 13-15 TDs and 2600 yards at best, IF he's relatively healthy - which he won't be. Kyle Boller backs him up and he's just terrible.  

JaMarcus Russell, Oakland Raiders: Russell is just god-awful. Jeff Garcia is the backup and could actually be a nice SLEEPER if he gets a chance to start. But that's a HUGE if, as the Raiders seem committed to crapulance and thy name is Russell. I can't see more than 12-13 TDs and 2200 yards or so, passing. I think Garcia's numbers will be substantially better if he plays - if he's not cut. Reports out of Raider camp are that Garcia is not happy with them and they're not happy with him. So he could be cut before the season starts. Anyway, stay away from Russell. He's crap.  

Jeff Garcia's wife is not crap.

Tampa Bay Buccanneers Quarterback: Do you know who the Bucs QB is? Cause I don't. Remember when Tampa Bay used to be good? Well, they're not anymore. They're defense is still probably adequate. But their offense is just flat out terrible. They drafted rookie Josh Freeman as their QB of the future and Freeman is a big man with a big arm, but he's a project and there's no way he's opening the season as the starter. That leaves the Bucs to choose from a pu-pu platter of Byron Leftwich, Luke McCown and Josh Johnson. Unless you're specifically trying to draft the worst QB possible, avoid all Tampa QBs. (Unless it's a long term keeper league, then you can cast a line for Freeman late in the draft.)

This will be you if you draft any of the QBs in the Syracuse bracket.

And that brings us to the end of our QB preview. Hope you got something useful out of it. But remember, at the end of the day...it's all luck. Tune back in next time as we run through the quagmire of seemingly hundreds of WRs. Talk about a crap shoot...

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